Friday, July 24, 2015

Why Not Another Manhattan Project?

Whenever Doom and Gloomers start talking about how bad things are in America, the question always arises: Why not just pull another Manhattan Project to solve it? Whatever "it" is.  The idea being that any existential crisis for America could be met by an all-out effort of the magnitude of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Moon Project, both being seen in their days as solving the existential crises of their day.


The differences I see between conditions in the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's and those today revolve around resources, specifically petroleum (energy) and strategic minerals (materials). America no longer has cheap, plentiful quantities of oil, iron, chromium, manganese, cobalt, platinum and others. The US is 100% dependent on foreign suppliers for 17 minerals and more than 50% dependent for another 24. Some examples include:

Element Percent Dependent Uses Source Countries
Arsenic 100 Semiconductors: Gallium Arsenide Monoco,China,Belgium
Bauxite 100 Principle ore of aluminum Jamaica,Brazil,Guinea,Australia
Cesium 100 Photoelectron cells, catalyst Canada
Indium 100 Semiconductors: Indium arsenide China,Canada,Japan,Belgium
Strontium 100 Specialty glass, Ferrite ceramic magnets Mexico,Germany,China
Thorium 100 Heat resistant ceramics, potential nuclear reactor fuel (LFTR) India,France
Gallium 99 Semiconductors: Gallium arsenide, solar panels Germany,United Kingdom,china,Canada
Vanadium 96 Steel and titanium alloys, catalyst in production of H2SO4 Republic of Korea,Austria,Canada,Czech Republic
Bismuth 92 Medicine, cosmetics, low-melting alloys China,Belgium,United Kingdom
Platinum 91 Catalyst, jewelry, Platinum-Cobalt magnets Germany,South Africa,United Kingdom,Canada
Germanium 90 Semiconductors, catalyst, anti-microbial China,Belgium,Germany,Russia
Iodine 88 Disinfectant, essential nutrient, catalyst, photography Chile,Japan

On May 10, 1940, when Germany ended the "phony war" and attacked the west through Holland and Belgium, America had less than a 6 months supply of rubber. More than 90% of America's rubber came from the Dutch East Indies, and this supply was in jeopardy. America responded with the formation of a Corporation to purchase at least a year's supply of rubber, the building of synthetic-rubber plants, and an effort to bring into production new sources of natural rubber in South America.

This type of response, the "market-driven" one, holds that increased needs will lead to increased supply. It also helps to reinforce the traditional lore of "Yankee Ingenuity", the concept that Americans are a bit smarter than others and can always invent their way out of a crisis.

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I welcome your helpful comments, but please remember these are just random musings on life, not life philosophy. YMMV!